Nat Med

Dementia risk projected to double by 2060

January 15, 2025

Study design: This community-based, prospective cohort study involved 15,043 participants (26.9% Black, 55.1% women, 30.8% with at least one APOE ε4 allele). Researchers estimated the lifetime risk of dementia from age 55 to 95, considering mortality as a competing event. They applied these estimates to U.S. Census projections to evaluate annual incident dementia cases from 2020 to 2060.

Results: The lifetime risk of dementia after age 55 was 42% (95% confidence interval, 41–43). Higher rates were observed in women, Black adults, and APOE ε4 carriers, with risks ranging from 45% to 60%. The number of new dementia cases in the U.S. is projected to increase from approximately 514,000 in 2020 to about 1 million in 2060, with a pronounced relative growth among Black adults.

Clinical impact: Findings underscore the need for targeted policies to promote healthy aging and address health disparities.

Source:

Fang M, et al. (2025, January 13). JAMA Intern Med. Lifetime risk and projected burden of dementia. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39806070/