Cervical cancer deaths could climb 39% by 2050

Clinical takeaway: Strengthen HPV vaccination, cervical cancer screening, and timely treatment efforts now, particularly for underserved populations, because current trends suggest cervical cancer deaths will continue rising for decades despite available prevention tools.

Cervical cancer is largely preventable, yet it remains one of the leading cancer killers of women worldwide. Persistent gaps in HPV vaccination, screening, and treatment access have left low-income countries with cervical cancer incidence rates more than four times, and mortality rates more than seven times, those seen in high-income nations.

A new Global Burden of Disease analysis examined cervical cancer trends across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023 and projected outcomes through 2050. Researchers estimated that 887,000 women developed cervical cancer and 369,000 died from the disease in 2023. Nearly 86% of cases and 89% of deaths occurred in low- and middle-income countries.

Although age-standardized incidence and mortality rates have generally declined or stabilized, population growth and aging are expected to drive substantial increases in the absolute burden. The investigators forecast that annual cervical cancer cases will rise 20% to about 1.08 million by 2050, while deaths will increase 39% to roughly 522,000 worldwide.

The outlook is particularly concerning for sub-Saharan Africa, which already has the world's highest cervical cancer burden. Annual cases there are projected to climb nearly 89%, while deaths could rise about 95%, reaching more than 206,000 annually by 2050. In 2023, cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates in low-income countries were more than fourfold and sevenfold higher, respectively, than in high-income countries.

The analysis also found that no major global region is on track to achieve the World Health Organization's cervical cancer elimination threshold of fewer than four cases per 100,000 women by 2050 if current trends continue. The authors noted that projections do not account for future gains from expanded HPV vaccination programs and are limited by data gaps in some low- and middle-income countries.

"Our forecasts suggest that the gap in cervical cancer burden will persist, highlighting the failure of existing policies to address entrenched regional disparities and underscoring the pressing urgency for transformative action to alter the current trajectory," concluded the authors.

Source: Pritchett N, et al. (2026 Nov 2) Nat Med. Global, regional and national burden of cervical cancer in 1990–2023 with forecasts to 2050: a Global Burden of Disease study