JAMA Netw Open

Papillary thyroid cancer surge still fueled largely by overdiagnosis

February 25, 2026

Using a validated U.S. microsimulation model, researchers estimated that 72% to 94% of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) diagnoses from 1991 to 2019 were overdiagnosed, translating to over 550,000 women and 150,000 men identified with cancers unlikely to affect survival. The model incorporated true increases in disease incidence and still found substantial overdiagnosis, with higher absolute rates in women. Simulated reductions in ultrasonography for nonpalpable nodules by 33% and 67% lowered projected PTC incidence by 17% and 41%, respectively—while changing overall mortality by <0.1%.

Clinical takeaway: Reserve thyroid ultrasonography for appropriate indications—particularly avoiding imaging of nonpalpable nodules—to curb unnecessary diagnoses and treatment without compromising patient survival.

Source:

Francis DO, et al. (2026, February 24). JAMA Netw Open. Overdiagnosis of Papillary Thyroid Cancer. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2845450